You’re going to pick the Kentucky Derby winner this year.
We all are.
All we need to do is find the right clue, or the right system, or the right expert.
Will the winner be determined, or divined, by the horse’s name, silk colors or jockey? (You could do worse than “Big Money” Mike Smith, the Hall-of-Famer who will be riding So Happy.)
Or will the winner emerge from the Beyer Speed Figures, a rating system devised by journalist and handicapper Andrew Beyer. (If so, your horse is Further Ado, whose 106 Beyer Speed Figure from the Blue Grass Stakes last month is the highest in the field.)
Or maybe you got a connection to Bill Benter, the former physicist whose computer algorithm has reportedly earned him $1 billion in horse betting.
But with time running out, our focus is on four handicappers.
The importance of horse psychology
Kerry M. Thomas, an equine behavior specialist, studies racehorses in search of something most bettors probably overlook.
The horse’s psychological profile. Preferably one that can help withstand the rigors of racing.
“I really don’t look at anything physical before I look at anything psychological because the physical data can trick you,” Thomas told USA TODAY Sports. “Just look at how it is with human athletes. If you can’t handle the stress, I don’t care how talented you are.”
Stress is Inevitable during the Kentucky Derby, with up to 20 horses racing, often in close quarters. Then what kicks in his bachelor herd mentality, when those 20 horses break into several miniature herds, according to Thomas.
“The field (of horses) breaks into pieces mentally,” he said. “It looks like a big massive chaos, but psychologically that doesn’t matter at all, because when they get to moving, they’re going to pick out one or two dudes that they’re going to go with or fight with.”
The dynamics test a horse’s psychology, and an understanding the psychological profile of the horses can lead Thomas to his pick for the Kentucky Derby winner: So Happy.
“He’s on this really good emerging psychological growth pattern,” Thomas explained, “seasoning in the right direction at the right time.”
Data-driven handicapping
About a decade ago, Alexa Zepp said she attended her first horse betting contest as a guest. Soon she was hooked.
“I got pretty good at it and started traveling all over the country, competing in these tournaments,” Zepp, 30, told USA TODAY Sports. “And yeah, I did pretty good. I was able to put a down payment on my house and get a hot tub from gambling winnings.”
Her full-time gig is with America’s Best Racing with a focus on sponsorships and broadcast. But she’s still committed to handicapping
“I’m a data-driven person,” she said. “I have a (computer) program that I use, my own algorithm program for racing that takes all kinds of factors into consideration, thousands of factors about all the horses.”
She said she also reads the Daily Racing Form.
“I know a lot of people bet jockeys, but I undervalue who’s riding,” Zepp said. “I look more at pedigree and distance in my program.”
Like Thomas, Zepp also takes herd mentality into consideration as she settles on her Kentucky Derby pick: So Happy.
“So Happy is going to be fairly forwardly placed and has tactical speed and deal with whatever comes,” Zepp said.
The telltale stride
Maggie Wolfendale said there’s a unique challenge to handicapping horse races.
“Horses can’t speak to us, so we have to try to read them,” she told USA TODAY Sports.
The daughter of a trainer, Wolfendale, 39, is a paddock analyst and host for the New York Racing Association. That means much of her work takes place in the paddock, where the horses are stabled and paraded before heading to the starting gate.
“A lot can be read by what their coat looks like,” Wolfendale said. “I often talk about dapples, which are like the round things on horses that just indicate good internal health, how rich and hydrated they look. Obviously they’re athletes, you want them to be hydrated. And you also look for fitness levels, how defined they look, how strong they look.”
When handicapping the Kentucky Derby and classic distance races, Wolfendale said, she pays close attention to something else, too.
“Usually it’s about horses that have long strides,” she said. “I would say is what it all boils down to.”
And that leads her to Further Ado, Wolfendale’s pick to win the Kentucky Derby.
“Just has a massive stride,” she said.
The Haiku Handicapper
Joe Nevills, the Haiku Handicapper, has picked his Kentucky Derby winner: Danon Bourbon, a Kentucky-bred horse stabled in Japan.
But it’s too early to get to the poetry, with Nevills, 39, confessing, “I don’t feel great about” the pick.
What Nevills likes: Danon Bourbon is bred for classic distance, with American bloodlines “leaning toward distance acumen.” Also, in Japan horses run in very deep sand. “So running 1 ¼ miles on the firmer dirt course at Churchill Downs should be like running on an Olympic track after training on the beach,” Nevills said.
What Nevills likes less: The underwhelming level of competition Danon Bourbon has faced. Using a college sports analogy, Nevills suggested the horse from Japan could be a MAC champion ready for a Big Ten beatdown.
“Do you see why I have to do these in haiku?” said Nevills, bloodstock editor for the Paulick Report.
For each Kentucky Derby entrant, Nevills writes a haiku poems – a Japanese poem consisting of 17 syllables in lines of five, seven, and five syllables.
Japanese horse. Japanese poem.
Gets stronger in stretchAmerican classic bloodThis could be the year
And dear reader, this could be your year.