Selection Sunday for the 2026 women’s NCAA Tournament is less than 10 weeks away and the field of 68 is becoming a bit clearer.
For now, the teams on the one-line seem to be locked in. UConn and Texas remain undefeated and South Carolina and UCLA have one loss a piece, but their resumes are bolstered by great wins. Teams like Kentucky and Oklahoma are looming and late-season surges always happen, but it’s likely going to take a few impressive upsets to shake up the top of the bracket.
Heading into the last half of the season, the top overall seed seems to be the Huskies to lose. The reigning national champs are first in NET, HerHoopStats rating, both national polls, and are atop ESPN’s latest bracketology. They’re also second — to only UCLA — in the new metric the selection committee is using this season: Wins Above Bubble, or simply WAB.
Led by Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, UConn is probably going to be a double-digit favorite in every game on their regular-season schedule. While a few Big East teams like Villanova are playing well, the conference doesn’t seem to have a squad that’s truly capable of challenging the Huskies. Left on the non-conference slate for Geno Auriemma’s squad are Notre Dame and Tennessee, who don’t seem quite as strong as last season.
If Texas were to tear through the SEC, they might have the metrics for the top overall seed, but that’s easier said than done. With teams like South Carolina, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, LSU and Ole Miss, the SEC is looking like the deepest and most competitive conference in the sport again.
Here’s USA Today’s projection of the top 16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament as of Wednesday, Jan. 7:
1. UConn
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. UCLA
5. Kentucky
6. Michigan
7. Oklahoma
8. Vanderbilt
9. Maryland
10. Louisville
11. TCU
12. LSU
13. Iowa
14. Michigan State
16. Texas Tech
In the hunt: Baylor, North Carolina, Ole Miss, USC
A season ago, all three schools based in North Carolina’s Research Triangle — Duke, UNC and N.C. State — grabbed top 16 seeds and hosted NCAA Tournament games during the opening weekend of March Madness. In what is shaping up to be a down year for the ACC, it’s quite possible that no venue on Tobacco Road will host this season, and perhaps just one ACC team lands inside the top 16.
However, Duke is surging, N.C. State is playing better and Stanford just grabbed a signature win in Chapel Hill. Over these final two months of the season, the ACC has work to do.
Bubble Watch
Last Four In: Utah, Arizona State, BYU, Syracuse
First Four Out: Richmond, South Dakota State, Virginia, Georgia
It should be said, Richmond and South Dakota State will obviously get into the field if they win their respective conference tournaments. Should they not do that though, the Spiders and Jackrabbits have put themselves in decent positions to grab at-large bids by playing challenging non-conference schedules. South Dakota State owns wins over Gonzaga and Kansas State, and is a combined 6-1 in Quad 2 and 3 games. Richmond is 4-2 in such games, owns a Power 4 win over Penn State, and should be challenged in another strong season for the Atlantic-10, which could be a multi-bid league again.
After playing soft non-conference schedules, Virginia and Georgia both need to pull together a few statement victories to be taken seriously by the selection committee.