Since it’s Halloween week, let’s take a few minutes to ponder what might be keeping conference commissioners up at night.
The first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff era was already going to have a whole lot of unknowns, since nothing like it has ever been attempted in college football’s top division. The advent of mega conferences with 16 to 18 members and no divisions add even more random elements into the equation. Indeed, it might not take long for league officials to decide that maybe the way conference champs are chosen might need rethinking, especially given the weight the playoff format places on conference championships for seeding purposes.
Where are we going with this? As the season chugs toward its conclusion, we’ve pretty much identified the teams from each of the four power conferences still in contention for their championships, which could in turn mean coveted first-round byes for the winners. But in each case, scenarios exist that could cause major complications for determining the two finalists. In one extreme case, it might even result in an undefeated squad being left out of its own conference title game.
In our Week 9 edition of overreactions, we’ll check in on each league office and let them know how much they should be panicking.
Big Ten
With just one full month left in the 2024 campaign, three league members have yet to taste defeat – and none of them are scheduled to play each other. Oregon, Penn State and Indiana have no head-to-head meetings, so if they all run the table, the championship game participants would be determined by tiebreakers. That would mean one of the three undefeated squads could only be an at-large playoff participant, and one fan base would be very unhappy.
Could it happen? It would require both the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers to beat Ohio State, the former in State College next week and the latter in Columbus on Nov. 23. The Buckeyes for their part need to win both of them to earn a rematch with Oregon. A split for Ohio State would likely relegate it to the at-large playoff pool.
The ACC
A similar scenario is unfolding here, also involving a couple of the league’s holdovers and one of the newcomers. Clemson and Miami have seemingly been on a collision course. But SMU’s late-night escape at Duke Saturday night kept its league record unblemished as well, and the Mustangs do not play either the Tigers or the Hurricanes.
But there’s a fourth team in the mix that could provide clarity. Pittsburgh, also still unscathed, plays both SMU and Clemson. If the Panthers manage to win both, they’ll set themselves up for a likely date with Miami. A Pitt split would leave whichever team beats the Panthers in the driver’s seat. But if both SMU and Clemson get by Pitt and don’t stumble elsewhere, we will have yet another three-team conundrum. We won’t say it’s a high probability, but it certainly can’t be ruled out.
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The SEC
OK, we never really thought things would be nice and clean in this league, did we? As things stand heading into November, Texas A&M is the lone team without a conference loss, while four others have just one. The two finalists will most likely be some combination of those five, with the Aggies having a leg up. Two of the once-beaten quartet play each other, meaning either Georgia or Tennessee will pick up a second loss. LSU still has a path to 7-1 if it can get past Alabama at home in a couple of weeks, but the Tigers would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with A&M and they don’t play any of the other three.
Which brings us to Texas, the only one of the group that still has a shot at the Aggies in that much-anticipated renewal of acquaintances. Of course it’s also possible that if the Longhorns win at A&M, they might have to turn around and play the Aggies again a week later in Atlanta.
Ah, but there remains a nightmare three-way scenario. It’s less likely than the Big Ten or ACC quandaries, as it would require A&M to lose twice. But LSU, Tennessee and Texas have no games among them. So if you want chaos, which might encourage planners to consider other means of determining conference finalists, root for that.
Big 12
The crisis meter is lowest here among the power leagues, especially since several teams projected as contenders at the start of the campaign have been kind enough to excuse themselves from the picture. The cleanest outcome would have the last two unbeatens, Brigham Young and Iowa State, reach the title game without incident. Kansas State gets a crack at the Cyclones in the last week of the regular season and could snag a rematch with the Cougars. Colorado is also lurking with just one league loss, but unfortunately for the Buffaloes they don’t play either BYU or Iowa State and therefore need help to make the championship game.
The Group of Five
For playoff purposes, the G5 conferences are in effect one giant league with just a single guaranteed seat at the table. But it’s fairly certain that said seat will either go to the champion of the American Athletic or the Mountain West. Boise State has the inside track at the moment, and the Broncos might even have a case to be seeded higher than 12th if they can get to 12-1 with a narrow loss at Oregon their only setback.
Unbeaten Army could alter the discussion if it can do what academy rival Navy couldn’t and upset Notre Dame in a few weeks. Again, if you really want chaos, imagine the Black Knights taking down everyone in the regular season including the Fighting Irish, winning the AAC title and being named to the playoff, but then losing to Navy after the field is set. OK, we’re stretching the limits of credulity with that one, but overreacting is what we do here.